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This paper analyses efficiency in Brazilian banks from 1998 to 2010 with a Bayesian dynamic frontier model. This model provides a more structural explanation for the variation in bank inefficiency than that has been presented by previous models, and also allows for cost inefficiency effects. On average, the dynamic frontier results, estimated via the Markov Chain Monte-Carlo simulation, indicate that...
We investigate the impact of bank loan announcements on borrower value during the recent boom and bust cycle of the 2000s using a sample of 253 large loans to French borrowers. We find a significant and negative stock market reaction to bank loan announcements during the Global Financial Crisis. Hence, although we document significant changes in bank behavior during the crisis with conservative contractual...
We examine the stock price and volume effects associated with changes in the composition of the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI), over the time period of 2005–2012. We find evidence to support the price pressure hypothesis for both additions to and deletions from the KLCI. This is because significant stock price and trading volume effects in the pre index revision period are...
This paper examines the integration and causality of interdependencies among six major East Asian stock exchanges, while also considering their interactions with the USA before and during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis. The data reveal that the global financial crisis has strengthened the linkages among stock markets in East Asia. Though the influences of the Hong Kong and Singaporean stock...
Past studies suggest that the Islamic finance system is only weakly linked or even decoupled from conventional markets. If this statement is true, then this system may provide a cushion against potential losses resulting from probable future financial crises. In this article, we make use of heteroscedasticity-robust linear Granger causality and nonlinear Granger causality tests to examine the links...
This article investigates the dynamics of regional financial integration and its determinants in an international setting. We test a conditional version of the international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) accounting for the deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) as well as temporal variations in both regional and local sources of risk. Using data from seven major countries of the Middle...
We hypothesize that persistent exchange-rate movements are a distress risk and a state variable in the Merton (1973) sense. To test our hypothesis, we use the tracking portfolio approach of Lamont (2001) to capture news about future persistent exchange-rate movements. We find empirical evidence that supports our hypothesis, which has important implications for both international finance and empirical...
This paper investigates macro-financial linkages in Egypt using two complementary methods, assessing the interaction between different macroeconomic aggregates and loan portfolio quality in a multivariate framework as well as through a panel vector autoregressive method that controls for bank-level characteristics. Using a panel of banks over 1993–2010, the authors find that a positive shock to capital...
This paper examines the impact of political uncertainty (caused by the civil uprisings in the Arab World i.e., “Arab Spring”) on the volatility of major stock markets in the MENA region. Our main findings are as follows. First, by distinguishing between conventional and Islamic stock market indices, we find that these two groups of investments react heterogeneously to the recent political turmoil...
We propose a new approach to measuring long-run inflation risk, the inflation risk premium, and inflation expectations for the UK over the period 1985–2012. By adding long-term bond futures to the information set of inflation-indexed and nominal bonds, inflation risk is measured as an incremental time-varying covariance obtained from a trivariate GARCH model with dynamic conditional correlations (DCC)...
We investigate shareholder wealth effects of stock dividends using a unique dataset from Oman in which many market frictions that are used to explain the stock dividend announcement effect are either absent or limited. We find a positive stock market reaction to stock dividend distributions. We also find that firms that distribute stock dividends experience favorable changes in operating performance...
In this paper we investigate how high frequency trading affects technical analysis and market efficiency in the foreign exchange (FX) market by using a special adaptive form of the Strongly Typed Genetic Programming (STGP)-based learning algorithm. We use this approach for real one-minute high frequency data of the most traded currency pairs worldwide: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF,...
We extend Kilian's (2009) framework to identify an exogenous shock arising from changes in financial market conditions and examine the consequent macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes. We find that a financial shock is a key determinant of oil prices and its macroeconomic impact is as important as the impact of other underlying shocks. The results indicate that policymakers must explicitly consider...
Hau and Rey (2006) explain a surprising negative correlation between the stock market and home currency by rebalancing action taken by unhedged international equity investors. Foreign investor flows data from Greece with a nationality-breakdown permit a unique empirical test of the key underlying assumption of their model setup: if rebalancing is driven by the motive of managing currency risk, only...
In this paper, we test whether the turn-of-the-month (TOM) affects firm returns and firm return volatility differently depending on their sector and size. We use time series data for 560 firms listed on the NYSE and find evidence that the TOM affects returns and return volatility of firms. The effects are, however, different for different firms and are dependent on the sectoral location of firms and...
It is well known that high levels of regional integration enable portfolio risk diversification and capital mobility. While there have been a number of empirical attempts to verify the presence of capital mobility using the Feldstein–Horioka (FH) approach, none of them to the best of our knowledge have explicitly examined capital mobility changes across regional economic groupings in Africa, analyzing...
Based on a panel data set for 114 South Asian commercial banks, we find that off-balance sheet banking reduces the effectiveness of the bank lending channel of monetary transmission. That is, banks with high exposure to off-balance sheet activities are able to insulate their loan supply against a monetary policy shock thus creating a buffering effect on monetary transmission. We also suggest that...
Information leakages experienced by U.S. targets in the pre-bid period are especially pronounced when they involve foreign bidders whose countries have weak insider trading sanctions, are perceived to have prevalent insider trading activity, have a low level of local merger activity, and are not classified as common law countries. Among foreign countries, information leakages are less pronounced when...
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